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Driving in the future perhaps China - and the world - 2 billion Afford cars.
SHENYANG rows of white minibus new marshal at the entrance of Brilliance Auto sprawling complex on the outskirts of this industrial city 4 2 million people in northeast China The complex comprises assembly shops, dormitories and headquarters, in addition to temporary parking for the company's products in a cavernous, dimly lit store, beige overalls workers with blue highlights and repeat the same basic task as assembling a conveyor belt slowly but steadily door skeletons minibus coming from the station to the station pace of the slowest worker the air is filled with short blasts of power tools whirring and the smell of ozone and the rubber is everywhere Brilliance logo, a knock-off polyhedral oval symbol of Toyota's largest automaker in the world.
The logo may be a tribute to the mammoth company whose partnership with Brilliance allowed to shine, with additional support from BMW The company owned the Chinese state is now selling about 80,000 JinBei and Granse MINIBUSES a year after equating Toyota Hiace minibus and Granvia models during a previous joint venture, or what the Chinese call the digestion technology.
At first we not have the capacity to develop our own vehicles, said Wang Shiping, Brilliance vice president of strategy, through a translator Now we buy engines from Toyota We have two engine factories, but it is the choice of customer, if they like Toyota engines provide us who enjoy home we have.
Just as the United States or neighboring Japan and South Korea, China made automobile manufacturing center of its development efforts appointing a pillar of the national industry in 1994 Brilliance of the parent company employs Huachen some 35 000 people and a bit like Henry Ford introduced an economic model that worked for the American-built cars that his workers could afford the wages he paid them the Chinese audience responded, purchase of approximately 14 million vehicles in 2010 and lifting the global fortunes of domestic and foreign automakers, such as GM, which for the first time in 2009, has sold more cars in China than in the U S.
At the same time, China has invested heavily in infrastructure to make the country of environmental car roads, bridges, tunnels construction orgy that happens to double as a recovery plan A blank Turnpike four tracks leading from the northeast city, empty except for a few trucks and official convoys excess speed past in their black sedan specially licensed But in a few years, the lanes will be crowded with cars and the next building cycle roads will begin in Beijing began its second device in the 1980s and completed its sixth stretching 187 kilometers around the sprawling capital in 2009.
the predictable results followed the traffic jams that stretch for kilometers, sprawling suburbia fuel prices and rising Vice Mayor of Beijing was recently exiled to work in Xinjiang after a debacle of some 30 000 vehicles are recorded in a few weeks in December, in anticipation of the new border vehicle register the Beijing municipal government duly implemented its plan on Dec. 13 fight against the capital is about 4 8 million vehicles that have transformed city roads in sinuous parking lots, including encouraging the use of the new metro system and limit new vehicle records only 240,000 total next year, about a third more than the total 2010 a mist covers the cities of China a combination of the smoke from a million coal fires and vehicles exhaust o bscurcissant the horizon with turning smog airlight a Beijing sun rose up fishing.
China, India, these countries can do better transportation expert Daniel Sperling request from the University of California, Davis Should they follow the model of the U S and Europe.
In 2010, the world has about 1 2 billion cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles, including about 200 million in China, but China cape potentially one billion only vehicles in the next decades, the question is can China build the clean car of future or it will remain stuck in the muck and mire of the past.
The industry and the market are smaller vehicles, less expensive, not just China and India, but also elsewhere, Sperling notes and tax cuts on cars with less than 1 6 liter engines have helped push sales of these vehicles to 70 percent of the Chinese market this year, but even with cars powered by the fuel-efficient engines if you think that we now have problems with the security of oil and climate change, it's not will do much worse than if we do something about the growing number of vehicles.
All oil Since the dawn of the oil age there are more than a century, mankind has produced and burned mostly about 1 trillion barrels of oil in the state, half of the oil used in worldwide 86 million barrels per day is burned in motor vehicles since it is an oil problem, it really is a transportation problem, says Sperling, because most of the oil is used for the transport of persons or goods.
And much of this transportation problem can be traced to China, where at least 2,000 new cars hit the streets of the capital Beijing every day increasing China's demand for oil between 2000 and 2007 was equal to the entire production of Saudi Arabia, says Mikkal Herberg, an energy expert and Asia at the University of California, San Diego, and two-thirds of oil imported from the country came from the Persian Gulf region China National development and reform Commission NDRC, the government agency that defines the Chinese energy and industrial policy, said that the country relies on imported oil for 55 percent of its supplies, or more than 4 2000000 barrels per day of just over 8 million barrels per day habit.
In Shenyang and Beijing, the gas costs about June 72 renminbi per liter in March 85 per gallon this fall but that price changes Because of the rise in world oil prices and billions being lost renminbi quasi-governmental Chinese oil companies the NDRC has raised fuel prices on December 21, adding about 0 to 23 renminbi retail price per liter in order to encourage conservation.
This conservation is necessary to protect China's energy independence, according to the NDRC Zhang Guobao Vice President Outside the Middle East, much of world oil production reached a peak Eighty percent of known proven reserves, easily produced in the world is where access is completely unavailable or very restricted and limited, Herberg notes.
But there are still a lot of oil out there, up to 4 5 billion barrels of unconventional oil if the oil from the tar sands, heavy oil and oil shale is included and there is more if we begin to convert other fossil fuels in China liquid fuel already has such a coal plant into liquid fuel and can build more if we are concerned about greenhouse gas emissions, this is exactly the wrong way to go this recarbonizing is our energy system, Sperling says we must meet the passenger transport needs in a way that doesn t destroy Earth.
national oil companies of China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Sinopec have invested in oil fields in the world, in order to ensure the future supply of oil is too important to be left to market Herberg notes the critical question is not who drinks of this piece of the lake is the room is quite critical water in the lake, enough oil on the market.
China is doing its part in trying to build a strategic stock of 20 days like imports to 90 days of imports stored by all countries that are members of the International Energy Agency essentially an anti-OPEC for IEA oil consumers has enough stocks collectively to 4 million barrels per day in the market in case of serious disturbance, Herberg says that the interpretation of a huge amount of oil.
And then there are alternative fuels The future is a mixture of biofuels, electricity and hydrogen, Sperling says that's almost 100 percent electric vehicles and precise lead this charge.
future electric Chinese companies have already produced about 120 million electric regular bikes bikes with an electric motor and a rechargeable battery attached a practical form of transport that is underutilized in the US These small businesses as Xinri, finish school building electric four-wheel vehicles, similar to the Nissan LEAF, joined by Chinese BYD battery manufacturers like, which means build your dream electric vehicles is a way they can burn the classic stages of technology, Sperling said the future vehicle moves towards electric propulsion.
The Chinese government has supported the child EV industry since 2006 as part of its 863 program for the development of advanced technologies it his top priority, Sperling said this is a way to reduce oil imports, which is a big deal for them, and a way to develop an automobile industry export-oriented China already exports some conventional vehicles Brilliance plans to ship some 40,000 vehicles in 2010, despite the crash test setbacks in Europe, where Brilliance sedans like folded origami on impact.
But there are electric vehicles on which China has suspended its future, eliminating tax cuts for small motor vehicles with internal combustion and invest more than 15 billion government money into a fund for builders automotive, utilities and oil companies to invest in electric vehicles and other energy over the next decade and the Chinese government officially unveil its energy saving plan and new energy vehicle development this month -ci, which give priority to hybrid and electric vehicles to 1 million of these cars on the road by 2015.
Already, received the order to build the electric vehicle industry in the country with an aim to become the leading producer of these vehicles by 2012, and the Chinese central and local governments offer and Dongfeng Auto, 16 state enterprises including Chinese automakers FAW Group hundreds of thousands of RMB in subsidies to electric car manufacturers If we fail to catch this trend, it will be difficult for us to survive in the future, said Wang Brilliance.
The only problem is that the Chinese consumer; hybrid vehicles that mate a gasoline and an electric motor, let alone pure electric vehicles are too expensive first Chinese car buyer, for example, costs Toyota Prius about 200,000 renminbi more than two cars comparable with only the internal combustion engine that runs on gasoline the high cost of new energy vehicles make it difficult for vehicles consumers to accept, Wang said, although the company sold 400 of these hybrid electric vehicles for use as taxis in the Chinese city of Dalian, thanks to government subsidies.
The technology is also no comparison with the internal combustion engine venerable pure electric vehicle requires battery kilogram to support a travel kilometer, making a car with the typical range of a conventional vehicle and heavy prohibitive overcome this obstacle with lighter- weight batteries using lithium-ion technology further increases the cost of the last vehicle Even if one can tolerate the heavy weight of the battery, we will not be able to tolerate the price premium on the cost of a comparable conventional vehicle, which varies from 50 000 to 60 000 renminbi per unit, Wang noted, although the Chinese government has introduced a subsidy of 60,000 renminbi to buyers of electric vehicles in five cities chosen and 50,000 renminbi for buyers hybrid cars.
In other words, electric vehicles are still too expensive for the average car buyer and what applies to China probably holds for the rest of the world The Chevrolet Volt, for example, is about 40,000 roughly twice States STATES before government incentives as a sedan comparable to an internal combustion engine.
It remains to see how electric cars during their reintroduction will draw this time; it is possible that electric vehicles can help car drivers in the world to reduce their oil consumption and reduce heat-trapping gases emissions After all, electric cars have dominated the early history of the automobile because of their ease Mrs. Henry Ford drove one until the abundance of oil and their market power density displacement while incorporating as electrical inputs for internal combustion cars aims to make more affordable cars that the consideration of the essence, said Julie Mullins, a spokesman for Better Place, an electric vehicle infrastructure provider if it is not practical and it is more affordable, consumers will not be make the change.
And starting today, electric cars are I no longer practical or affordable no confidence in electric vehicles up to a hill of beans in the next five years or 10 years Batteries are ugly, says Mark Levine, a scientist senior at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, who worked with the Chinese government on energy efficiency programs since 1986, but notes that the Chinese do miracles in China will be dominant in electric vehicles and likely take on the world market in 2025 when the technology matures unless other countries are willing to subsidize their own production.
He adds s just not happen overnight.
At the same time, a single pass Chinese drivers of burning oil on the use of electricity is created by burning coal accounts for over 70 percent of such power currently in the Middle Kingdom can not reduce greenhouse gas emissions enough electric vehicles only makes sense if you're also committed to decarbonise electricity, says Sperling.
And generally, it will take time for electric vehicles to move the internal combustion engine Not until 2029 in exchange for all electric vehicles if all sales of vehicles today are ahead of electric vehicles, says engineer chemist David Rogers, CEO of climate change in the California oil company Chevron, and until 2089, if only 25 percent of new vehicle sales were Electrics Toyota Prius cars as hybrid electric vehicles that rely on conventional engines in conjunction with electric rose only up to 5 percent of new vehicle sales in the past 10 years, this thing will take a long time.
It can be buses and taxis that are leading the charge, given their roads and circumscribed return to fixed locations Buses are large enough to hold the batteries, Wang pointed out, and they are purchased largely by major governments -Pockets rather than ordinary citizens.
One thing seems clear will more driving with internal combustion engines at least for the near future, either in China, the United States or elsewhere in the current conditions, only 1 to 2 percent of Chinese consumers willing to buy hybrid vehicles, Wang says consumers are not yet ready to be willing to pay for the environment of their own pocket.
Editor's Note Reporting for this function was held after a Jefferson Fellowship of the East West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Driving in the future may Chinaand the WorldAfford 2 billion Scientific American cars, driving future billion cars.